His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. No evidence for systematic voter fraud: A guide to statistical claims To find out more about cookies and change your preferences, visit our, looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties, The Russia-Ukraine War: a challenge to international order, Global Energy Politics and Cost of Living Crisis, The New Normal: a dual track approach to health strategy and policy, Inside the Deal: how the EU got Brexit done. A diverse group of residents, many were surprised to wake up the morning of Nov. 4, 2020, to see that Joe Biden overtook Trumps leads in numerous battleground states from the night beforesuch as in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Jacobs said she absolutely intends to vote in person on Nov. 3. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. Getting fertilizer can be a challenge.. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. Hamilton had already cast his vote for Biden on the first day of early voting. She sees the economy, trade, China, and the Middle East peace deal as top issues. The median household annual income is approximately $20,000 less in the county than it is nationally. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Its population is 60% white and 27% Black. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections When you were in the union, they always wanted you to vote for Democrats, Paul said. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. And its just so easy to snowball it to where chances are, if youre not very careful and work very hard in the other direction, you may just [continue a life of crime].. She said she almost never votes, but this year decided to vote for President Donald Trump. And its never going to come back.. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high scoring counties, they said. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. I dont watch TV. Logistically, its a disaster. It was easy. Being poor, I do believe that we need a stable safety net for people. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to, nationally. Please read our comments policy before commenting. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020 Bremer County, Iowa The researchers also mapped all American counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scorethat is their record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. He was an apprentice and then a journeyman in a local steamfitters union for about 10 years before he was laid off. bellwether - Political Dictionary Ottawa County is on the doorstep of a Democratic stronghold, about 35 miles east of Toledo in neighboring Wood County. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Im not happy with the way things are now. Two states have announced recounts. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Im not happy with either party. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. We believe that there are two main reasons. He received his bachelors degree in mechanical engineering from the University of Toledo and a Masters degree in electrical engineering from Northwestern in Illinois. 2016 Trump. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. Since picking the winning candidate in Democrat Lyndon Baines Johnson in 1964, it has deviated from the winner only twice. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. By registering for the newsletter, you agree to the, New Crew From US, Russia, and UAE Arrives at Space Station, LIVE NOW: Biden Awards Medal of Honor to Retired Army Col. Paris Davis, We Have to Pay Our Sins: Lawmakers Must Negotiate Way Out of US Debt Crisis: Sen. Manchin, Suspect Charged After Chicago Officer Dies After Shootout, Nevada Approves $330 Million in Tesla Tax Abatements Over Gigafactory Expansion. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. Farming also is huge here. Thats probably the biggest fear right now when I talk to people. Fitch, who grew up in foster homes and went on to put himself through college, has owned and run the Summit Fireside Lodge and Grill for 32 years. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. That was a blow to the area, Miller said about Peloton ending its plans for a $400 million project. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine. Under a changed political landscape in Ottawa County, Commissioner Mark Coppeler, a Republican, also looked at the bigger picture. Now the places emerging as possible new bellwethers have more racially diverse populations. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. He also intends to vote in personto ensure his vote is counted that day, although he used a mail-in ballot to vote in the primary. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Its just stupid, she said. I think they [the current administration] are trying to push us into buying electric cars. Things happen for a reason, and its out of our control until things change, Brendon told The Epoch Times. Why are you trying so hard to get this one guy out of office? he said of the disproven Russian collusion accusations and the presidents impeachment. Shortages are all over the place, Miller said. Haotian Chen is a Ph.D. student in political science at the University of California, Irvine. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. Like all-or nothing bellwethers, counties that closely tracked the election for 12 consecutive elections failed to continue that form for a 13th time. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. Our model also links this decline to increases in polarization. But Hamilton thinks more changes are needed. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! Since then, he has been doing odd jobs, such as cutting grass or trimming trees for neighbors. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. We know that President Donald Trump won 18 of the 19 historic bellwether counties those that have regularly predicted the outcome of presidential contests. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. He said hes concerned but hopeful for the future. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. Two states have announced recounts. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and the University of New Hampshire. These 3 Virginia Congressional Races Could Be 'National Bellwether We find that bellwether success is almost entirely a matter of random coin tosses in multiple counties over time to create an appearance of predictive power that is a matter of chance. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. The ongoing coronavirus restrictions seem to be nudging people to the right, but six weeks out from the election and with the October surprises still to come, the Keystone State could be the clincher for either candidate. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. High scoring bellwether counties in these regions tend to border other high-scoring counties, unlike their counterparts in the South and West, which tend to see high scoring bellwethers somewhat isolated from each other. I quit voting once out of the union.. Federalist: 5 Ways Biden Unusually Outperformed Norms Bellwether County Portends a Red Pennsylvania in 2020 Election Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Ottawa County is also the home to the Marblehead lighthouse (the oldest lighthouse in continuous operation on the Great Lakes), Africa Wildlife Safari, and its county seat of Port Clinton is known as the Walleye Capital of the World. Haotian Chen University of California, Irvine Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. We need to be safe, and I dont think we are right now.. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard Says Election Fraud a 'Serious Threat,' Announces Bill Targeting Ballot Harvesting. I trust the system implicitly, he said. They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. Fourth, it lists whether they won Florida, Ohio and Iowa . They run the gamut from. At least Biden is honest, he said. He loves this country. But, he said, he also doesnt complain. Biden Won Despite Losing Most Bellwether Counties Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of USAPP American Politics and Policy, nor the London School of Economics. What happened to our Democratic Party? MORE evidence: It looks like Biden outperformed only in counties that Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. Republican registrations have increased from 8,467 on Nov. 9, 2016, to 9,960 as of Sept. 17 this year. The cost of my prescriptions has gone through the roof. A small-business owner, who didnt want to be identified, said hes voting for Biden. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. HOW THE SPECTER OF COMMUNISM IS RULING OUR WORLD. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. And yet, the belief in bellwether states or counties as predictors of US presidential elections is a phoenix that is constantly being reborn. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Ron DeSantis, Miller said he likes Gov. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. Election Results 2014: The Bellwethers - The New York Times Bergbower suspects Trump will win in the county by a smaller margin this year, but will win nonetheless. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. I find that hard to believe. I cant lead that kind of lifestyle.. After the 46-state landslide, James Farley, Roosevelts campaign manager, revised the theory: As goes Maine, so goes Vermont.. And just a few miles outside the countys urban center of Terre Haute, youll find a sprawl of soybean and corn farms, with a rural demographic that often leans Republican. Moreover, once we allow for bellwethers to have less than perfect records of success, the expected numbers of bellwethers increases much more rapidly than most (including us) would expect. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. The price of regular gas at the local Sheetz was $2.53already substantially higher than across the border in West Virginia, where $2.19 was the norm. Shepherd said being able to bear arms is of particular importance now and she fears Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden would restrict that right. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. A lot of people think things are. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. SACRAMENTO . They need to take care of the older people here. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. She shook her head at the high price of gas. We have become so divided. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Kyiv City Ballet US Premiere | Dance at Northrop
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